Diabetes 2030

IAF has conducted a study to provide detailed diabetes prevalence and cost forecasts for each of the 50 states, including demographic breakdowns. The study was commissioned by the global diabetes care company Novo Nordisk to provide insights into how this growing epidemic could affect local economies.

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The Institute for Alternative Futures has updated its diabetes forecasting model and extended its projections to 2030. We have prepared estimates of the burden of diabetes in the years 2015, 2020, 20205, and 2030 for each of the 50 states plus 18 major metropolitan areas.

A grant from Novo Nordisk supported the Institute’s research. The data and forecasts are freely available for use by policy makers and legislators, reporters, members of the diabetes community, and the general public. The resultant professional article: Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends, by Rowley, Bezold, Arikan, Byrne and Krohe published in Population Health Management has just been released ahead of print free to the public online at online.libertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/pop.2015.0181. It describes the methodology, diabetes trends from 2015 to 2030, and their implications for America. Full text HTML, full text PDF and Full Text PDF with links to references versions of the article are available at the web site.

The data have been analyzed and configured to help answer questions such as:

  • What will be the future cost of diabetes in a particular state or major city?
  • What will be the impact of diabetes on population groups that are disproportionately affected by diabetes, such as older adults?

These projections of the human and economic impact of diabetes paint a vivid picture of the potential devastating future toll of diabetes in America, and underscore the need for immediate and aggressive action to help prevent diabetes whenever possible in those at risk, and improve the U.S. health care system to more effectively address the needs of people with diabetes.









This study is based on available national diabetes data, including population projections extrapolated to the state, and the CDC’s 2011 National Diabetes Fact Sheet and latest diabetes prevalence projections to 2050. It assumes a steady, but conservative, reduction in the number of people with complications due to better awareness of the risks of diabetes, earlier screening and intervention, and more effective therapies.

For details on the study methodology and data sources, read “Creating Public Awareness: State 2025 Diabetes Forecasts,” an article that is freely available to the public from the peer-reviewed Journal of Population Health Management.


For details on sources referenced in the Diabetes 2030 briefing papers, view or download our list of endnote references.


American Diabetes Association: www.diabetes.org

Centers for Disease Control – Diabetes Public Resource: www.cdc.gov/diabetes

National Diabetes Prevention Program: diabetes.niddk.nih.gov/dm/pubs/preventionprogram

Novo Nordisk Diabetes Barometer: www.diabetesbarometer-us.com

Novo Nordisk Inc.: www.novonordisk-us.com


Rowley William R, Bezold Clement, Arikan Yasemin, Byrne Erin, and Krohe Shannon. Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends. Population Health Management. April 2016, ahead of print. Doi:10.1089/pop.2015.0181.